“КИТАЙСЬКА ЗАГРОЗА” В ГЛОБАЛЬНОМУ КОНТЕКСТІ: ТЕОРІЯ І РЕАЛЬНІ ВИКЛИКИ
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В. О. Кіктенко
Анотація
У статті розглянуті основні положення сучасного формулювання “теорії китайської загрози” та весь спектр думок щодо зростання Китаю як небезпечного для світового порядку, а також судження китайських вчених і міжнародне сприйняття цієї концепції. Розглянуто різні прояви “теорії китайської загрози” в наукових публікаціях та періодичних виданнях. Показано, що прихильники цієї концепції вважають, що Китай не уникне логіки розвитку наддержави, а піднесення Китаю становитиме загрозу сусідам і кине виклик інтересам США у Східній Азії. Визначені головні аргументи противників “теорії китайської загрози”: 1) обмеження агресивної поведінки, 2) обґрунтування неагресивності історією, 3) спростування надмірності військових витрат, 4) антикитайські упередження, 5) перевага безпеки над загрозою. Висловлена думка, що подальший розвиток “теорії китайської загрози” перебуватиме під впливом трьох факторів: 1) криза сучасних західних капіталістичних моделей економічного розвитку і зростання привабливості “китайської моделі”; 2) припущення, що Китай ставатиме все більш експансіоністською країною; 3) криза ідентичності в західних країнах, і особливо у США, може вплинути на ще більшу демонізацію Китаю.
Як цитувати
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глобальний контекст, реальні виклики, теорія, “Китайська загроза”
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