Режим Талібану 2.0 і виклики державотворення в сучасному Афганістані
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Анотація
В Афганістані все ще триває політична нестабільність, і рух Талібан, який мав невдалий досвід державотворення з 1996-го до 2001 року, знову прийшов до влади. Нинішній режим, через чотири роки після захоплення влади, не здобув ні внутрішньої легітимності, ні міжнародного визнання. Їм ще належить досягти зближення між суспільством і державою, а отже, і їхнім режимом. Це дослідження розглядає виклики державотворення в Афганістані за чинного режиму Талібану. У ньому стверджується, що підхід Талібану до державотворення “зверху вниз” спрямований на збереження їхнього режиму, у якому переважають пуштуни, а також на монополізацію та впровадження, часто силою, шаріату. Тоді як загалом керування країною групою обраних людей з будь-якої етнічної групи не є проблемою, етнічний фактор був дуже помітний у політиці в Афганістані, де жодна етнічна спільнота не становить більшість.
Не слід забувати і про міжнародний аспект, оскільки історичні події останніх кількох десятиліть також впливають на сучасні виклики державотворення в Афганістані. Для підтвердження цього аргументу у статті розглядаються відносини між суспільством і Талібаном, політика режиму щодо забезпечення безпеки, політичні та збройні опозиційні групи, політика регіональних та міжнародних сил. У статті рекомендується, щоб задля усунення розриву між режимом і суспільством та здобуття внутрішньої легітимності й міжнародного визнання Талібан враховував громадську думку під час розробки та впровадження політики. Для цього потрібні зусилля як на національному, так і на міжнародному рівні.
Як цитувати
Кохі , А. М., & Теварі , А. К. (2025). Режим Талібану 2.0 і виклики державотворення в сучасному Афганістані. Східний світ, (3 (128), 152-164. https://doi.org/10.15407/orientw2025.03.152
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Ключові слова
Афганістан; державотворення; іслам; пуштуни; Талібан; шаріат
Посилання
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Ibrahimi N. (2023), “A Violent Nexus: Ethnonationalism, Religious Fundamentalism, and the Taliban”, The Review of Faith & International Affairs, Vol. 21, Issue 3: Ethnic Nationalism and Politicized Religion in the Pakistan-Afghanistan Borderland, pp. 22–37. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15570274.2023.2235809
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Khan I. and Ahmed Z. S. (2025), “Borderland Struggles: The Consequences of the Afghan Taliban’s Takeover on Pakistan”, The Round Table, Vol. 114, Issue 1, pp. 34–51. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00358533.2025.2466193
Kiani V., Hajipour M. and Rahimi N. (2024), “Taliban Government Formation in Afghanistan; Transnational Geopolitical Challenges and Their Solutions”, Geopolitics Quarterly, Vol. 20, Issue 3, pp. 98–133. DOI: 10.22034/IGQ.2024.410578.1792
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Kumar R. (2024), “Taliban’s Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani Killed: Why It Matters”, Al Jazeera, December 16, available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/16/talibans-khalil-ur-rahman-haqqani-killed-why-it-matters (accessed August 20, 2025).
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Mossalanejad A. (2021), “Iran’s Policy Toward Terrorist Groups and Regional Crises”, Geopolitics Quarterly, Vol. 16, Issue 4, pp. 310–333.
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Rahimi H. (2022), “Remaking of Afghanistan: How the Taliban are Changing Afghanistan’s Laws and Legal Institu-tions”, in The Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), July 26, available at: https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/papers/remaking-of-afghanistan-how-the-taliban-are-changing-afghanistans-laws-and-legal-institutions/#(accessed August 20, 2025).
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Shariati S. and Vazirian A. H. (2024), “Counterterrorism in Middle Eastern Foreign Policy of Iran (1971–2021)”, Geopolitics Quarterly, Vol. 19, Issue 4, pp. 246–267. DOI: 10.22034/igq.2023.160291
Sørensen G. (2001), “War and State-Making: Why Doesn’t It Work in the Third World?”, Security Dialogue, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 341–354. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0967010601032003006
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“Afghanistan Refugee Crisis Explained” (2024), in USA for UNHCR, July 29, available at: https://www.unrefugees.org/news/afghanistan-refugee-crisis-explained/ (accessed August 19, 2025).
“Afghanistan’s Taliban Responsible for Revenge Killings, Torture of Former Officials” (2023), in United Nations, August 22, available at: https://news.un.org/en/story/2023/08/1139962 (accessed August 20, 2025).
Ahady A.-H. (1995), “The Decline of the Pashtuns in Afghanistan”, Asian Survey, Vol. 35, Issue 7, pp. 621–634. DOI: https://doi.org/10.2307/2645419
Aljazeera (2016), “Afghanistan Peace Talks Held in Pakistan”, 11 January, available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2016/1/11/afghanistan-peace-talks-held-in-pakistan (accessed September 18, 2025).
Ashley J. (2018), Life under the Taliban Shadow Government. Research Report, in ODI Global, June, pp. 1–31.
Bizhan N. (2018), “State-Building in Afghanistan: Aids, Politics, and State Capacity”, Asian Survey, Vol. 58, Issue 6, pp. 973–994. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/as.2018.58.6.973
“The Charter of the Supreme Council of National Resistance for the Salvation of Afghanistan” (2023), in National Resistance Council for the Salvation of Afghanistan, available at: https://nrcafghanistan.org/en/vision/the-charter-of-the-national-resistance-council-for-the-salvation-of-afghanistan/ (accessed August 20, 2025).
Cohen Y., Brown B. R. and Organski A. F. K. (1981), “The Paradoxical Nature of State Making: The Violent Crea-tion of Order”, The American Political Science Review, Vol. 75, No. 4, pp. 901–910.
Council on Foreign Relations (n.d.), “Timeline: The U.S. War in Afghanistan”, available at: https://www.cfr.org/timeline/us-war-afghanistan (accessed June 28, 2025).
“Crocus City Hall Terror Attack Perpetrators Plead Guilty at Trial” (2024), in TASS, August 4, available at: https://tass.com/society/1997843 (accessed August 21, 2025).
Department of State (2020), “Agreement for Bringing Peace to Afghanistan between the Islamic Emirate of Afghanistan Which is Not Recognized by the United States as a State and is Known as the Taliban and the United States of America”, February 29, available at: https://www.state.gov/wp-content/uploads/2020/02/Agreement-For-Bringing-Peace-to-Afghanistan-02.29.20.pdf (accessed August 20, 2025).
Edwards L. M. (2010), “State-Building in Afghanistan: A Case Showing the Limits”, International Review of the Red Cross, Vol. 92, No. 880, pp. 967–991.
Fathi M. J., Eivazi M. R. and Pirani S. (2022), “Prospect of the U.S Withdrawal from West Asia in the Light of Re-gional Strategic Policy”, Geopolitics Quarterly, Vol. 18, Issue 2, pp. 174–224.
Felbab-Brown V. (2024), “The Taliban’s Three Years in Power and What Lies Ahead”, in Brookings Institution, Au-gust 14, available at: https://www.brookings.edu/articles/the-talibans-three-years-in-power-and-what-lies-ahead/ (ac-cessed August 20, 2025).
Fourteenth report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team Submitted Pursuant to Resolution 2665 (2022) Concerning the Taliban and Other Associated Individuals and Entities Constituting a Threat to the Peace Stability and Security of Afghanistan (2023), United Nations Security Council, June 1.
Ginn P. (2025), “Trigger Warning: Afghanistan’s Unchecked Arsenal under Taliban Rule”, in Global Initiative Against Transnational Organized Crime, February 6, available at: https://globalinitiative.net/analysis/afghanistans-unchecked-arsenal-under-taliban-rule/ (accessed August 20, 2025).
Grotenhuis R. (2016), “Nation-Building and State-Building and the Challenge of Fragility”, in Nation-Building as Necessary Effort in Fragile States, Amsterdam University Press, Amsterdam, pp. 73–91. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1515/9789048532124-009
Gul A. (2022), “Taliban Kill Rebel Commander from Minority Hazara Shiite Group”, Voice of America, August 17, available at: https://www.voanews.com/a/taliban-kill-rebel-commander-from-minority-hazara-shi-ite-group-/6705383.html (accessed 20, 2025).
Hassan T. (2024), “World Report 2024: Afghanistan”, in Human Rights Watch, January 12, available at: https://www.hrw.org/world-report/2024/country-chapters/afghanistan (accessed August 19, 2025).
Ibrahimi N. (2023), “A Violent Nexus: Ethnonationalism, Religious Fundamentalism, and the Taliban”, The Review of Faith & International Affairs, Vol. 21, Issue 3: Ethnic Nationalism and Politicized Religion in the Pakistan-Afghanistan Borderland, pp. 22–37. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/15570274.2023.2235809
Jackson A. and Weigand F. (2019), “The Taliban’s War for Legitimacy in Afghanistan”, Current History, Vol. 118, Issue 807, pp. 143–148. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1525/curh.2019.118.807.143
Khan I. and Ahmed Z. S. (2025), “Borderland Struggles: The Consequences of the Afghan Taliban’s Takeover on Pakistan”, The Round Table, Vol. 114, Issue 1, pp. 34–51. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/00358533.2025.2466193
Kiani V., Hajipour M. and Rahimi N. (2024), “Taliban Government Formation in Afghanistan; Transnational Geopolitical Challenges and Their Solutions”, Geopolitics Quarterly, Vol. 20, Issue 3, pp. 98–133. DOI: 10.22034/IGQ.2024.410578.1792
Kossaify E. (2023), “Islamic World Officials Denounce Taliban Actions, Media Stereotypes of Muslim Women”, Arab News, March 9, available at: https://www.arabnews.com/node/2265201/world (accessed August 21, 2025).
Kumar R. (2024), “Taliban’s Khalil Ur-Rahman Haqqani Killed: Why It Matters”, Al Jazeera, December 16, available at: https://www.aljazeera.com/news/2024/12/16/talibans-khalil-ur-rahman-haqqani-killed-why-it-matters (accessed August 20, 2025).
Mir A. (2023), “Two Years Under the Taliban: Is Afghanistan a Terrorist Safe Haven Once Again?”, in United States Institute of Peace, August 15, available at: https://www.usip.org/publications/2023/08/two-years-under-taliban-afghanistan-terrorist-safe-haven-once-again (accessed August 20, 2025).
Monten J. (2014), “Intervention and State-Building: Comparative Lessons from Japan, Iraq, and Afghanistan”, The Annals of the American Academy of Political and Social Science, Vol. 656, Issue 1, pp. 173–191. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0002716214546989
Mossalanejad A. (2021), “Iran’s Policy Toward Terrorist Groups and Regional Crises”, Geopolitics Quarterly, Vol. 16, Issue 4, pp. 310–333.
Mossalanejad A. (2022), “Geopolitical Power Balancing in Biden’s Strategic Policy Making”, Geopolitics Quarterly, Vol. 18, Issue 4, pp. 26–46.
Quarterly Report to the United States Congress (2024), Special Inspector General for Afghanistan Reconstruction, April 30, available at: //www.sigar.mil/Portals/147/Files/Reports/Quarterly-Reports/2024-04-30qr.pdf (accessed Au-gust 20, 2025).
Rahimi H. (2022), “Remaking of Afghanistan: How the Taliban are Changing Afghanistan’s Laws and Legal Institu-tions”, in The Institute of South Asian Studies (ISAS), July 26, available at: https://www.isas.nus.edu.sg/papers/remaking-of-afghanistan-how-the-taliban-are-changing-afghanistans-laws-and-legal-institutions/#(accessed August 20, 2025).
Rubin B. R. (1996), “Afghanistan: The Forgotten Crisis”, Refugee Survey, Vol. 15, No. 2, pp. 1–35.
Rubin B. R. (1999), “Afghanistan under the Taliban”, Current History, Vol. 98, No. 625, pp. 79–91.
Sayed A. (2021), “Analysis: How are the Taliban Organized?”, Voice of America, September 05, https://www.voanews.com/a/us-afghanistan-troop-withdrawal_analysis-how-are-taliban-organized/6219266.html (ac-cessed September 18, 2025).
Shariati S. and Vazirian A. H. (2024), “Counterterrorism in Middle Eastern Foreign Policy of Iran (1971–2021)”, Geopolitics Quarterly, Vol. 19, Issue 4, pp. 246–267. DOI: 10.22034/igq.2023.160291
Sørensen G. (2001), “War and State-Making: Why Doesn’t It Work in the Third World?”, Security Dialogue, Vol. 32, No. 3, pp. 341–354. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1177/0967010601032003006
“Taliban’s Leader Rejects Group’s Prominent Uzbek Commander’s Resignation” (2024), Afghanistan International, Oct 16, available a https://www.afintl.com/en/202410163876 (accessed August 20, 2025).
“Thirtieth report of the Analytical Support and Sanctions Monitoring Team submitted pursuant to resolution 2610 (2021) concerning ISIL (Da’esh), Al-Qaida and associated individuals and entities (S/2022/547), United Nations Security Council” (2022), in ecoi.net, available at: https://www.ecoi.net/en/file/local/2075689/N2239429.pdf (accessed August 21, 2025).
“UN Releases Report on Human Rights in Afghanistan since the Taliban Takeover” (2022), United Nations Assistance Mission in Afghanistan, July 20, available at: https://unama.unmissions.org/un-releases-report-human-rights-afghanistan-taliban-takeover (accessed August 20, 2025).
Ylönen A. (2022), “On State-Making, Fear Governance, and Terrorism”, Peace Review, Vol. 34, Issue 1, pp. 91–98. DOI: https://doi.org/10.1080/10402659.2022.2023434
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